In Search of an October Surprise

Sorry, Mills, but we're back to the anti-Republican ranting.

This rant is more justified than most because it is about Bush's absolutely unforgiveable North Korea non-policy. This may very well end up being what kills us all. It is completely unbelievable to me that he doesn't have a North Korea policy. What he has is a refusal to have a policy. Unfortunately, with a problem like this, a country doing something you want them to stop doing, diplomatic options are limited. You have to pick one, or a combination, of three options. Negotiations, diplomatic/economic sanctions, or simple threats. That is, you can bribe them, punish them, or attack them. That's about all there is. Bush has refused to do any of them.

Well, we've had threats aplenty actually. But threats don't do any good if you never back any of them up. That's why I said this was the "attack them" option. If you threaten and threaten but don't actually attack... Well in that case all threats actually accomplish is to make you look either weak or retarded, or in Bush's case, both.

Let's review the history of North Korea's nuclear program: During the original Bush administration intelligence sources learn that North Korea has a nuclear reactor and a program to enrich the plutonium from this reactor into weapons-grade nuclear material suitable for atomic missiles or hydrogen bombs or whatever you want to call them. For whatever reason (it may have been too late into Bush I's only term) nothing is done about this program. Clinton becomes president. It takes him about 15 seconds to decide that negotiations are the way to go in this matter. Baldly put, Clinton cut them a deal. We would ship North Korea fuel oil and food aid assist in construction of two light water (civilian energy only) nuclear reactors. In return North Korea shut down its plutonium reactor and put the fuel rods it was enriching into a cooling storage pond, both with international inspectors camped on them at all times. This became known as the "Agreed Framework" and it kept the North Korean nuclear program on ice (more or less) for Clinton's entire presidency. Cut to 2002. George W. Bush is now president and intelligence sources learn (or believe with high confidence for whatever that's worth) that North Korea now has a program to enrich URANIUM into weapons grade material. Now, this program is far behind the plutonium program Clinton shut down, if it even exists. The Bushies denounce this hypothetical program as a violation of the Agreed Framework and discontinue the aid shipments and construction on the two reactors (which the incredibly COMPETENT Clinton administration had never actually gotten around to building for North Korea). The North Koreans say fine, kick out the inspectors, restart their reactor and resume enriching their existing plutonium. The Bush administration adamantly refuses to talk to the North Koreans without every other asian nation in the room with them. Okay, that's an exaggeration, but they insist on a 6-way discussion between N. Korea, S. Korea, us, Russia, China and Japan. No one knows what this is supposed to accomplish, but what it actually does accomplish is clear. Nothing.

Alright, not quite true, 4 years later, what it has "accomplished" is an insane dictatorship with no regard for its own citizens well-being, that now has conducted at least semi-successful ballistic missile and atomic weapons tests. But after all, the more retarded of you might say, why should the Bush Administration REWARD North Korea's outragous behavior with the amazing blessing of actually sitting down and talking to them face to face without 4 superfluous chaperones in the room? Well, basically, because negotiation is not a reward for anything, it's basic diplomacy. Insisting that they shut down their nuclear program before we'll even talk to them one on one is a simple-minded trick that not even a baby would fall for. It's like saying, we would like you to do what we want because we say so. Then we'll agree to talk to you and tell you why we wanted you to do it. Once they shut down their nuclear program, what do we want to talk to them for? They've already done what we want! Are you saying that we'll bribe them only after they accede to our demands? What makes that better than bribing them before they do it? As long as it gets done, I mean?

But North Korea always violates their agreements! They violated the Agreed Framework! We can't trust them! Jesus. Of course we can't trust them! They're North Fucking Korea not goddamn St. Francis of Assisi! That's what the fucking inspectors and our incredibly overpaid intelligence agencies are for. To tell us they're cheating so we can make them stop, or else we'll cut off our shipments. You don't just cut off the shipments and then tell them to shape up. Because they won't do it. They're nuts. We know what they'll do now, because they've already done it, but it's not like it was hard to predict, unless you're a moron.

But we're the United States! Why should we have to bribe some podunk, no-account, third-world country that can't even feed itself?! Let's send in the troops and kick some ass!! Uh, yeah. We have to bribe them because the other two options are basically impossible. Clinton knew this, and no offense, but 6 years in it's rapidly becoming clear that he's way smarter than Bush will ever be. You can't try to punish North Korea with sanctions diplomatic or economic because they're already over the edge. They have diplomatic relations with South Korea and China, and I think that might be it. And economic sanctions are basically the same. Their economy is laughable. It's like threatening to punish a homeless kid by taking away his toys. If he had any toys, he might start worrying. Basically they don't have anything to sanction. Their diplomacy is practically non-existent, and the only country that could legitimately threaten their economy is China, and China won't do it. China could flick a switch and all the lights in North Korea would go out. They could send North Korea back to the Stone Age without firing a shot. But they'll never do it. Because unlike us, they worry about what happens to countries when they fall apart with nothing in place to put them back together. Plus, they have a border with North Korea. If North Korea falls apart, and they will eventually, it's China and South Korea that are going to have to clean up the mess. China's North Korea policy is basically to put that off as long as possible, and keep the mess as small as possible. Unfortunately, now, thanks to Bush, that mess is probably going to include nukes. Is it fair to blame Bush for this when China could probably stop this with a few words. Well, perhaps not.

But the fact is that the other side of China's North Korea policy is to use them as a sort of attack dog/bargaining chip in their dealings with the United States, since everyone knows who holds North Korea's leash. And additionally, well, guess what? The world isn't fair. China is not our friend, they're North Korea's friend. They're not going to help us. When you compare Bush to Clinton (which maybe isn't fair either) it is just so obvious. Clinton didn't wait around for China to save our bacon, he did what he had to do, what was best for the United States, even if it meant doing some troubling deals with one of the shadiest regimes on the planet. Was it our finest hour? No. But it worked.

But what about option number three? Why can't we attack them and end their nuclear program by force? Well, let's just say that they're not Iraq. North Korea has a million man army with relatively sophisticated equipment. A heavily fortified border and a very large and powerful ally (China) at their back. The likelihood is that if we attacked North Korea we would very rapidly have China to deal with as well. Could we beat them both? Well, maybe. Our conventional forces are certainly more advanced than anything either of them has, although they would be considerably outnumbered and fighting on the enemy's home ground. It would certainly be a disaster for both sides, whoever ended up winning. And that's leaving China's nuclear arsenal out of the equation. THAT war could end as a disaster for our entire species. And for what? So we don't have to give North Korea food and fuel oil? Look at it as Christian charity motherfuckers! Goddamit.

Anyway, however well our military might do against North Korea's, it's definitely a moot point while that same military is fighting two seperate wars on the other side of the continent and hypothetically gearing up for a third in Iran if the Administration is dumb enough to start it. Leaving the issue of whether we could win against North Korea aside, a war with them right now is flat out impossible and is an incredibly nasty prospect at the best of times. Especially if we can buy them off so cheaply.

My guess now is that the price has probably gone up over the past six years. Good job, Bush Administration! It is absolutely necessary that we elect a Democratic Congress in November. Anything to limit the damage. Fortunately, this looks more and more like a reality every day.

Okay, a few more quick notes. The second episode of Veronica Mars was great. Better than the first episode. A little more Logan, though still used sparingly. Still no Weevil. Interesting plot and sub-plot. And another instance in which Veronica ends up confronting the essential dishonesty of a lot of what she does.

On a somewhat embarassing note, Mills and Alex were over here tonight to help me clean out my bathroom. At first I wasn't sure what the big deal was, but once we started scrubbing it became apparent that I had greatly underestimated the problem. I still have a bit of work to do there, but at least now I know. And knowing's half the battle! Thanks guys!

Oh, I should mention Rob's bachelor thing. Rob is marrying Monica on Saturday, so this past Tuesday, a bunch of us took him to BD's Mongolian Grill. Man, I love that place. I think (hope) that he really enjoyed it and that we managed to surprise him. Practically everyone showed up and a good time was had by all. Even Matt was able to have a sundae of some kind, a Bavarian Pretzel Roll and some beer. Congratulations, Rob.

I keep meaning to say something about Nintendo's Wii. It's coming out next month and it looks awesome. Unfortunately, Nintendo's reputation is for tragically under-supporting the coolest features of the hardware it creates. At the end of the day, they make games, not hardware. With that said, it's hard to see how this can miss as the most important features are built in this time around. They'll have to support them as their whole system is built around things like the new remote style controller and the wireless itnernet connectivity. And the virtual game store is just that, a GAME store, for games that they already have, old Nintendo classics. Surely they won't mess this up. November 17th. Get ready. Alright, I'm done. Time to go to sleep.

Simon Belmont, over and out.