Now, Back To Your Regularly Scheduled Republicans

My friend Bree twittered recently about Sarah Palin. Something along the lines of "Who are these 30% of people that say they would vote for Sarah Palin?" This fits in so well with what I planned to write about that I am using it as my introduction.

Who are these people? These 30% that want Sarah Palin to be our President? Well, in the simplest terms, they are the rank and file of the Republican Party. They are its grassroots supporters, its foot soldiers. Without these people, these 30%, the Republicans stop being a national political party and stand revealed as a rather cutthroat assemblage of business interests along with those few individuals that make up the wealthiest 1% or so of our nation.

They are, generally speaking, evangelical Christians who attend church regularly (probably more than simply once a week). They believe in the power of prayer (I'm not sure which one of them prayed for a black president, but I'm sure the others are all cursing his name). Their religious views dictate many of their political views. For instance, they oppose gay rights and abortion, but they support the death penalty. Because it's in the Bible. Despite the Bible's mysterious silence about gun control and immigration by brown people that don't speak English, they are against all of those things. They don't like the government, government regulations or taxes, but they love the police and the military. They also love tax cuts.

This is who we're talking about then, this 30%. They are the heart and soul of the Republican Party. They're also the Republican Party's biggest problem. And they LOVE Sarah Palin. That's part of the problem.

Between 1994 and 2000 this 30% essentially took over the apparatus of the Republican Party at the state level and below. School boards, county supervisors, state committees; they now essentially own it all. If you want to get elected to statewide or national office as a Republican these are the people you're dealing with. These are the people that vote in the state primaries. These are the people Arlen Specter switched parties to avoid. As John McCain found out in 2008, it is no longer possible to get the Republican nomination for anything without at least grudging support from the 30%. And let's remember that if Fred Thompson had been willing to really get off his butt and campaign, or if it had been just McCain and, say, Huckabee in the race without Romney and Giuliani, then McCain probably would have lost. The 30% was not excited about McCain and they feel like they were sold a bill of goods in 2008. That McCain had to be the guy because he was the only one that could draw support from independents and Democrats. We know how that turned out.

The lesson they seem to have drawn from McCain's defeat is not that they were somehow too rigid and not inclusive enough, but conversely, they were too inclusive and not rigid enough. McCain himself is now facing a primary challenge for his Senate seat from one of these 30 percenters. He has a lot of money in the bank and Palin herself has promised to campaign for him so he may pull through this time. But let's put this in perspective. John McCain has a lifetime voting record of 81% conservative from the American Conservative Union (through 2008). In what universe does someone with an 81% conservative rating get a primary challenge from the right wing for not being conservative enough?

This then is the first horn of the dilemma that the Republican Party has made for itself: they need these people. They are not a force in national politics without them. The 30% supply the energy, they pound the pavement, they work the phones, they write inflammatory screeds on the internet; and they supply most of the votes as well. But now this 30% have formed their own little club within the party, true conservatives only. And it's a club that John McCain and his 81% conservative voting record are not conservative enough to join. He's officially a fake conservative, they have their own word for it, a RINO (Republican In Name Only). If they have their way, soon ONLY the 30% will be allowed to be Republicans. Which is, of course, a recipe for electoral suicide. Specter saw the handwriting on the wall and jumped ship. Many old-line Republicans have retired rather than risk losing a primary. McCain has been in the Senate for over 20 years, has a ton of money and a famous name; so they may not be able to get rid of him through a primary. However, he's also about 80 years old, and when he's gone they WILL be able to elect his replacement. As far as the nomination goes anyway.

Because the second horn of the dilemma is that the country is changing. The 30% is on the wrong side of virtually every issue there is, as far as demographics go. The country in general is getting younger, browner, and more tolerant. The three trends that are especially bad news for the GOP are in voter turnout, their bad reputation with younger voters, and the increasing minority population. 2000, 2004, and 2008 each set a record for voter turnout. That's in numbers of voters, not percentage, the 2008 election had about 63% turnout which is the best percentage since 1960. This is bad news for Republicans because it's fairly clear that they maxed out their support in 2004. They got every single 30 percenter to the polls that year, and if turnout numbers continue to rise... They won't be 30 percenters anymore, they'll be 25 percenters, or 20 percenters.

Meanwhile the youth vote is increasing as a percentage. And younger voters are, not universally but generally speaking, considerably more socially liberal than the GOP would prefer. They generally support gays having the same rights as everyone else, and a woman's right to choose and other things that the Republicans consider anathema.

The major way that the 30% folks are forcing the Republican Party to shoot itself in the foot though, is in it's policy on immigration. Here's why: Four states are already majority-minority states. Hawaii, California, New Mexico and Texas. That is, white people make up less than 50% of the population in those states. The Republicans essentially booted themselves into permanent minority party status in California with Proposition 187 in 1994, which was an anti-illegal immigration measure. Arnold Schwarzenegger is the only Republican to win a California election for governor, senator, or president since 1994.

If they do the same thing in Texas, they're pretty much finished in national elections. But that's not the worst of it. By 2050 (wikipedia's estimate is 2042) the country as a whole will be majority-minority. Largely because of illegal immigration. That doesn't mean the actual voting electorate will be less than 50% white in 2042 or 2050, but eventually... And if the Republicans spend 15 or 20 or 30 years with the same kind of immigration rhetoric they're using now, I don't see too many Latino voters choosing the party that wants to ship Mom and Dad back to Guatemala, or Venezuela, or Mexico, or wherever.

So, the GOP's problem is thusly, they need these 30% folks to hang onto what they've already got. If they lose them, it's hard to see where they're going to get new voters from. Heck, in the short term, screaming about gays and immigrants might get them back in the saddle in Congress, at least temporarily. However, in the long term, the tighter they cling to the 30%, the more they cater to them, the harder it's going to be to grow their share of the electorate. The harder it's going to be to say "Haha, just kidding! We really do love everybody, not just old white guys! Please vote for us!" They've locked themselves in the cupboard with these people, and now they can't get out.

Which means they're stuck with Sarah Palin. The Sarah Palin problem is even easier to understand. Approximately 70% of the country thinks she isn't qualified to be President. But the 30% that do are the same 30% that the Republican Party can't do without. The same 30% that largely control the Republican primary process. So, if you're the Republican Party, what do you do? Spend time trying to convince that other 70% that Sarah Palin is some kind of closet genius? Or try to convince the 30% that there's somebody even BETTER out there? "Hey, guys, have you heard? Not only is Tim Pawlenty a conservative just like you and me and Sarah Palin, but he also is the REAL governor of a REAL state; not some pretend-state where they have to pay you to live there." Or maybe, "What's everyone think about this Bobby Jindal? I think he might love Jesus even more than Sarah Palin does, plus, he's down with the brown. Bonus points!" Or even, "Mitt Romney paid me a lot of money to say he's awesome! Even cooler than Sarah Palin! Maybe if you vote for him, he'll pay you a lot of money too!"

Sarah Palin is kind of the 4th Horseman of the Apocalypse for the GOP, the final sign of their doom. George Bush the 1st and Dan Quayle were Famine and Pestilence, George W. Bush was War, and now Sarah Palin is the last. She is Death. Because even if something called the Republican Party survives into the second half of the 21st century, it's not going to be the same party that would nominate Sarah Palin to be vice president, let alone take her seriously as a candidate for president. Or at least, we can always hope.