The Romney Problem

For more than a year I've been hearing the pundits and party apparatchiks droning on and on about how Mitt Romney is the presumptive Republican nominee for president. And for more than a year I've been saying to myself, "Self, there is no way that Mitt Romney will ever be the Republican nominee for president." Then my two selves generally high-five and go get some Turkish Delight.

Granted these press functionaries do have one very good reason for appointing Romney as the heir-apparent of the Republican Party's nominating season: Money. That is to say, Romney's got a metric ton of it and nobody else in the race has enough to float a model of Romney's yacht in. Or even to buy the said model of Romney's yacht for purposes of said floating.

The Romney problem is that money is all he's got. Some of the things he doesn't have, money can actually stand in for. Money can buy an organization, campaign workers, ads, etc. Money can buy you the illusion of success. The so-called inevitability argument. If you have 250 million dollars and you announce you're running for president, you are going to see your name in the paper a lot from that point forward no matter how the actual voting or polling goes. Especially if your opponents are each basically funded by one guy apiece.

However, there is all too much that money cannot buy you, especially in politics. It can't buy you an actual base of support. It can't buy you fervent campaign volunteers. It can't buy you dedication or excitement. And most importantly, it can't buy you votes. And Mitt Romney has had problems getting all of these things.

The Romney problem is that Republicans just flat out don't want him, at any price. When I say Republicans here, what I mean is the heart and soul of the party. The primary voters. The people that think Mormonism is kind of a creepy cult. The people that called John McCain a Republican In Name Only in 2008. The people that were energized by adding Sarah Palin to the ticket. The people that believe Barack Obama is a secret Muslim who was born in Kenya and yadda-yadda-yadda. Romney needs their support to get the nomination, and that support can't be bought. He's reversed every position he held as governor to get that support. He's toed the party line, cravenly parroting anything his fellow candidates have said. And none of it seems to be working.

Thus far Romney has won 4 contests this election season. He's won in New Hampshire, Florida, Nevada and Maine. Of those states, Florida comes the closest to being a traditional Republican stronghold. The story so far, however, is that in the south and midwest, where Republicans are strong, Romney is weak. He's managed to get over 40% of the vote only twice in what's essentially been a 3 person race since Iowa. Romney, Paul and either Gingrich or Santorum - but not both. He's in the embarrassing position of having to fight tooth and nail campaigning in his home state of Michigan (in which he currently trails).

The inevitability argument that no other candidate can survive a long campaign is severely dinged and dented at this point. If Gingrich leaves the race before Super Tuesday, supposing most of his support would swing to Santorum, that would probably sound the death knell for Romney's candidacy.

There are really only two ways Romney can get the nomination at this point. Scenario 1 depends on Newt Gingrich staying in the race and managing to siphon enough support away from Santorum to allow Mitt to squeak by in enough key states to get the delegates he needs. Scenario 2 involves Romney's Super PAC, because he's going to need to find a way to convince his party's primary voters that Santorum is fundamentally unable to be elected president.

In the end, the Romney problem is that the gate to his desire is kept by a horrible rabble that he just doesn't understand and can't communicate with. He doesn't speak their language the way that Newt and Santorum do. Hell, Santorum is one of them. And all Mitt's efforts come off as somehow strained and fake. Pandering and desperate. Mitt Romney is running for the nomination of a Republican Party that he just doesn't belong in. The voters know it and they can tell that, deep down, he does too.